The Call: Augustana at USF
USF hosts Augie at the Stewart Center for the first time ever Friday (women at 6, men at 8), and as you can read in my preview story in Friday’s editions, this is as good a time as any for the USF men to finally get a win against Augustana.
The Vikings aren’t exactly ripe for the taking or anything, they’re 17-5 overall, 13-5 in NSIC play, and have been pretty solid on the road. They have arguably the best guard in the league in Cam McCaffrey (league-leading 20.2 points per game) and a 6-9 freshmen center in Dan Jansen who is quickly becoming one of the best big men in the league, averaging 16.9 points and 7.6 rebounds over his last seven (11.4 and 5.7 overall).
But the Cougars are finally starting to get some things to go their way, having gone 2-0 last weekend and won three of their last four. I don’t think they’re necessarily playing all that much better than they were, they just finally got a chance to beat up on some Northern Division teams. USF is now 10-12 overall and 6-12 in the conference, and they needed to get healthy against some beatable teams, because I think they were playing better than their record earlier, when the schedule was much tougher. That said, there aren’t too many chances for wins left on the schedule. They host Augie and Wayne this week (I’d normally pick them to beat Wayne at home, but who knows how they’re going to respond less than 24 hours after hosting Augie for the first time ever), then visit Mankato and Concordia the next week.
I think the USF guys sense that this is a good chance to get the Vikings. I’m not sure how much of a factor it’ll be, but the Stewart Center should create a unique environment. It’s not a big place, and I’m told they’re not going to go too far over the 2,000 seating capacity (if that many people actually show up — about 1,400 tickets had been sold as of Thurday).
This will be Augie’s first time in there, and Tom Billeter admitted he’s not sure if they’ve faced something similar. Next year and beyond, Augie will have a better idea of what to expect in that building. This year they won’t.
As I wrote earlier this week, Derek Brown has really been a revelation for the Cougars — I didn’t think much of him early in his career, but he’s really become an excellent player. He was always a decent shooter, but he’s become a better shooter, and a more versatile and dynamic offensive player. He’s fun to watch when he’s going good.
Meanwhile guys like Rob Goffney, Bill Freeman and Dave Maxwell have had their moments, and AJ Holland quietly seems to score 15 points most nights. James Rader is their leading scorer, but Augie really did a good job on him with Jansen and Zach Huisken in the last meeting, and I have my doubts about Rader being able to overcome that this time around. It’d help if USF got something from their other big, Bryan Kielpinski, who has been invisible the last few weeks just when he really looked to be turning a corner.
It’s sorta tempting to pick the Cougars based on the ‘first-time at the Stewart Center’ angle, and if they win I won’t be shocked, but the Vikings are clearly the safe pick here. You can bet McCaffrey has every intention of putting his stamp on this game, and even if he somehow has a bad one, the rest of the Vikings have improved so much since the last meeting that it’s just hard to see USF having enough ammo to hold them off. They’re going to need to be hot from outside, and indications are that the Vikings are going to defend that much more aggressively this time around.
Prediction: Vikings by 7.
As for the women, this one couldn’t have been uglier the first time around. To be fair, the Vikings played one of the more perfect games you’ll ever see — they were just outstanding in every phase of the game. And USF was kinda-sorta hanging around before Laura Johnson left with foul trouble.
The Cougars have just been so inconsistent this year. Chrissy Strassburg has really improved as the season has progressed, but it’ll be hard for USF to lean on her when the Vikings can counter with Shaunteva Ashley and Emily Schulte on defense.
And the Cougars better hope Johnson has her shooting stroke, because their posts haven’t given them much of anything lately.
Augie’s women have been fairly inconsistent themselves of late, and they have laid plenty of stinkers on the road over the years, in easier places to win than the Stewart Center.
But again, it just feels like the Vikings have too much firepower.
Prediction: Vikings by 11.
Note: As of Thursday night about 400 tickets remained, all GA. It’s gonna be cramped in there, so get there early. Parking lots open at 4, doors open at 5.
There’s $5 parking in the Stewart Center or Cleveland Center lots, otherwise you’re on your own on the side streets.
If you can’t make it, I’ll be hosting a live chat from the game at argusleader.com/mattchat
